A two-year research project will model AI music's next decade

Fraunhofer IDMT and Popakademie Baden-Württemberg started a two-year project examining how generative AI could reshape the music business and music culture by 2036.

“Perspective 2036” will cover production, distribution, rights clearance, licensing and commercial use. Fraunhofer contributes technical analysis of music models, while Popakademie studies social, economic and legal effects. The project is funded by Germany's Federal Ministry of Research, Technology and Space.

The team plans to build future scenarios with affected stakeholders and turn them into recommendations for policymakers and the industry. Its stated topics include transparency, compensation models and licensing procedures.

The horizon matters

Most AI music reporting follows a launch, lawsuit or viral track. A ten-year horizon allows the researchers to ask slower questions: which work disappears, which new work becomes possible, how bargaining power changes and what evidence a licensing market needs.

The project does not yet provide answers, and its scenarios should not be mistaken for forecasts. Its value will depend on who is included, what data is published and whether the final recommendations distinguish current model capabilities from assumptions about 2036.

Still, the launch is a useful institutional signal. AI music is now being treated as a cultural-policy and labor-system problem, not only as a feature category for software companies.